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The LME Debate and Outlook returned for the London Metal Exchange Week Seminar 2026 and that meant the return of an experienced panel and the customary audience poll asking which metal has the most potential upside for the upcoming year.
Before the panel members made their cases, the audience had their say: Copper was without any competitor, gaining almost three-quarters of the vote.
Post-debate, the poll was repeated and that time copper took half of the audience vote, ahead of tin at 26.5%, while panellists pointed to stalled concentrates growth, scarce zinc ore, Indonesian nickel quotas and US tariffs on Canadian aluminium.
On the panel were Harbor Aluminium’s Jorge Vazquez, Trafigura’s Graeme Train speaking on copper, StoneX’s Natalie Scott Grey discussing zinc and lead, Morgan Stanley’s Amy Gower addressing the nickel market, the International Tin Association’s Tom Langston and S&P Global Energy’s Tamara Thorne on steel.
Data center copper demand nears 1 million tonnes: Trafigura
Copper demand grew by 2.7 million tonnes over the past five years, the same as in the five years before the Covid-19 pandemic, but the drivers have changed completely, said Graeme Train, head of metals and minerals analysis at Trafigura.
“Traditional sectors – construction, infrastructure, autos, white goods – were the primary driver in the previous period, and most of that was happening in China. Over the last five years, they have contributed effectively nothing to copper demand growth. All of the growth is coming from the new sectors,” Train said.
Over the same five years, about 1 million tonnes more copper supply was added than in the five years before the pandemic. Solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) and scrap units made up for limited growth in concentrates, Train said.
“Concentrates are not really growing that much. There wasn’t enough before. There’s not really enough now,” he said.
US imports have complicated the picture. “If the US has built about 900,000 tonnes of copper this year, that’s like a quarter of supply growth diverted to the US and taken away from the real market,” Train said.
“It has left copper in a quantum state of being both in a surplus and not in a surplus at the same time,” he added.
Train said China would keep building smelters until it no longer needed to import refined copper.
“That’s what we saw with steel, that’s what we saw with aluminium, and I think copper is going in the same direction,” he said.
About 75% of all mine supply added over the past 10 years has had some form of Chinese equity backing, Train said. Outside China, “it’s perhaps only the US that has really taken very strong action to secure the copper [it needs],” he said.
Copper demand from data centers has grown from almost nothing to about 1 million tonnes, and Trafigura has raised its estimates. Train said this was partly because of new data and partly because capital expenditure estimates keep rising.
“You could maybe add another million tonnes to that quite easily over the next five years, and maybe even two million,” he said.
On Trafigura’s numbers, about 3% of copper demand is linked to data centers, compared with about 8% for lead, panellists estimated.
Semiconductors to keep tin riding high: International Tin Association
“Significant investment in new supply will be needed to avoid structural deficits in the next decade,” said International Tin Association Senior Market Analyst Tom Langston, noting supply constraints in Indonesia and Myanmar.
Langston said the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price had more than doubled since 2024 and was up about 20% year-to-date.
“On demand, tin is the glue which holds together all of the world’s electronics as solder, making it essential for the AI build out and also the energy transition.
“Semiconductor sales have surged to record highs, and this rapid growth, along with the exceptional performance of semiconductor equities, is undoubtedly supporting sentiment towards tin,” he added.
Rotterdam aluminium premium could reach $1,000/t on US-Canada deal: Harbor Aluminium
European aluminium premiums could climb to over $1,000 per tonne and US premiums would decline sharply should the US lower tariffs on Canada to 25%, said Harbor Aluminium Founder Jorge Vazquez.
“If the US gives Canada a 25% tariff, we believe that the [US] Midwest premium will plunge and it could go as low as 60 cents per pound (lb), right now it’s about 110 cents per pound and we believe it could plunge to a range of between 60-80 [cents], it all depends on the specifics of that deal,” he said.
Vazquez added that this would be bad news for Europe and leave the region in a “tough spot”.
“For Europe that’s bad news because then the Canadians are going to have a really high netback selling in the US and P1020 units in Europe — that have been key to keeping Rotterdam premiums at a reasonable level — if the US gives Canada this deal then you’re going to have those units moving to the US…Europe is going to have tightness that we think is going to take the Rotterdam premium to $1,000 [per tonne] or more,” he said.
Vazquez said he believed there was 75% probability that the US would give Canada a deal.
“I think the US is inclined to offer Canada a 25% tariff. I believe there’s a chance [that] following that the US will do the same with allies. I think that political factors were the reason why the deal was not finalized back in August….I think it’s coming,” he said.
Fastmarkets assessed aluminium P1020A premium, in-whs dp Rotterdam at $550.00-585.00 on Friday October 16, stable on the week.
The daily aluminium P1020 premium, ddp Midwest US was assessed at 106-108 cents per lb on Tuesday October 13, narrowed upward from 105-108 cents per lb on Tuesday October 6.
Zinc still scarce, lead insulated from volatility: StoneX
“Zinc is this year’s clear outperformer with gains driven almost entirely because of supply concerns,” said StoneX Senior Metals Analyst Natalie Scott Grey, noting ore scarcity due to environmental and structural disruptions, lower refined output outside of China and net long positions across the global exchanges.
Oncoming mine supply could rebalance the market, Scott Grey added, though prices would depend on four factors: “Whether mine output arrives on time, how long smelters can operate in a loss-making environment, whether China is going to keep exporting refined zinc and whether investors stay bullish,” she said.
On the lead market, Scott Grey was unambiguous: “It is the worst performing base metals this year. The market is in surplus and global stocks are at record highs,” she said.
However, lead’s strength was its stability, Scott Grey said. “Supply and demand is relatively insulated from volatility, [which] means that prices are going to move less than the rest of the complex.
“Lead is somewhat recession proof because its biggest end use is lead acid batteries, two thirds of that is replacement of those batteries.”
Nickel a poor performer in 2026: Morgan Stanley
“It is the worst performing now of the base metals year to date,” said Morgan Stanley’s Head of Metals Amy Gower, who focused on the dominance of Indonesia in the nickel market.
“Indonesia has made it quite clear that they don’t want to mine all of their best resource at what they deem to be low prices,” she said, referring to mining ore quotas announced early in 2026.
Rainy season in the Philippines and an ongoing drought in Indonesia could pinch supply, she added.
The full weight of a spiral in sulfur premiums amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were still to be felt by some in the nickel market, Gower said. While some have “maybe been shielded this year,” contract negotiations for 2027 could make those geopolitical difficulties more apparent, she said.
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