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Australia’s resources and energy project pipeline has reached record levels, with $143.1 billion in proposed capital investment highlighting the strength of brownfields development even as forecast workforce growth slows.
The Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association’s (AREEA) Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast: 2026–2031 identifies 112 major projects, an increase of 16 from last year and the largest pipeline recorded in the forecast series.
However, the projects are expected to generate just 19,549 additional operational jobs, down 12 per cent from last year and more than 30 per cent below the 28,260 positions forecast in 2023.
For investors, the divergence highlights a resources sector increasingly focused on sustaining existing operations, extending mine life and expanding established assets rather than delivering substantial new employment growth.
AREEA chief executive Steve Knott said the pipeline remained healthy despite the changing workforce outlook.
“Australia’s resources and energy pipeline is as healthy as it has ever been – more projects than at any point in this series, and capital investment among the highest we have recorded,” Knott said.
“But more and more of that investment is about sustaining existing operations and keeping existing workers in jobs as older mines and gas fields run down, rather than adding new roles.”
Of the 112 projects identified, 24 are continuity developments expected to generate no net additional employment, while 32 expansion projects are forecast to add approximately 1800 positions.
New developments remain the primary driver of workforce growth, with 69 projects accounting for approximately 15,900 additional jobs. Another 11 reactivation projects are expected to contribute around 1900 positions.
The findings suggest that while brownfields investment remains an important source of capital expenditure, the next phase of industry growth will depend heavily on bringing new mineral deposits into production.
Knott said maintaining exploration incentives and improving project approvals would be essential.
“Exploration is lifting on the back of strong gold and copper prices, but it can take a decade or more for a discovery to become a mine,” he said.
The forecast follows BDO research highlighting the substantial financial capacity available across Australia’s largest ASX-listed explorers.
BDO’s inaugural Top 50 explorers report found the group held $6.84 billion in cash at June 2026, representing more than half the $13.04 billion held across 746 explorers surveyed.
However, the Top 50 spent just $238.8 million on exploration during the June quarter, with 68 per cent spending less than 10 per cent of their quarter-end cash reserves on exploration.
BDO audit and assurance partner Dave Andrews said capital allocation was becoming an increasingly important consideration.
“The question is increasingly not whether these companies have capital available, but where they choose to deploy it,” Andrews said.
Together, the reports highlight a developing investment dynamic: established resources companies are directing capital towards sustaining production, while cash-rich explorers are weighing acquisitions, development opportunities and consolidation alongside exploration.
For investors, the critical question is whether Australia’s substantial project pipeline and available exploration capital can translate into new producing assets capable of supporting industry growth beyond the current decade.
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