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The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is creating a new source of demand for copper, aluminium and other base metals, but geopolitical disruptions and sluggish mining investment threaten to constrain future supply.
New analysis from Wood Mackenzie suggests the global data centre boom is intensifying competition for metals already needed for electrification, energy security and infrastructure development.
The consultancy is tracking more than 250 gigawatts (GW) of data centre projects worldwide, more than three times the pipeline recorded a year ago.
AI data centre electricity demand is forecast to increase fivefold between 2025 and 2030, exceeding 1000 terawatt-hours by 2035.
However, the investment opportunity extends well beyond the facilities themselves.
Transmission networks, substations and dedicated power generation can require three to four times more metal than the data centres they support, creating additional demand for mining companies and infrastructure suppliers.
“Data centres represent an economy-wide power infrastructure challenge, but the bigger story is the collision between accelerating demand and increasingly complex supply delivery,” Wood Mackenzie vice president of metals and mining research Lindsay Grant said.
“High prices should trigger investment, yet project sanctioning remains below expectations. Without faster approvals and investment commitments, the industry cannot deliver the mine supply needed to support future growth.”
Copper faces a supply challenge
Copper remains particularly exposed to the widening gap between long-term demand and investment in new production.
Wood Mackenzie estimates the industry must deliver approximately 850,000 tonnes of new greenfield copper supply annually over the coming decade.
Yet permitting delays, geopolitical uncertainty and increasing project complexity continue to constrain development.
Copper prices have reached $US14,759 per tonne, while US stockpiling has pushed domestic inventory cover above 170 days, compared with just 48 days elsewhere.
Although global mine supply is expected to expand by more than five per cent in 2027, the longer-term challenge remains securing sufficient investment.
For copper developers, the outlook reinforces the strategic value of projects capable of progressing through approvals and into production.
Read more: Copper supply deficit could reach 44 per cent by 2050
Aluminium, nickel and lithium diverge
Aluminium faces a projected one-million-tonne deficit in 2026 after Middle Eastern smelter disruptions removed almost two per cent of global primary production.
The market is expected to return to surplus in 2027 as Indonesian capacity expands.
Nickel presents a more complicated investment picture, with Class II supply expected to tighten from 2027 while Class I nickel and chemical markets remain oversupplied.
Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded approximately 130 per cent from their mid-2025 lows, supported by expanding energy storage demand.
Wood Mackenzie estimates a further $US150–250 billion will be required across the lithium supply chain through the 2050s, following $US60 billion invested over the past decade.
For investors, the findings highlight increasingly different supply-demand dynamics across base metals, despite the common growth drivers of electrification and AI.
“Markets are adapting to a world where security of supply, energy availability and geopolitical considerations increasingly sit alongside cost competitiveness in shaping investment outcomes,” Grant said.
The analysis suggests that companies able to secure funding, navigate approvals and deliver production into constrained markets could be better positioned to capture the next phase of metals demand.
Read more: Scale emerges as lithium’s defensive moat
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