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Copper smelting at El Teniente mine, the world’s largest underground copper mine in Machali, near Rancagua, Chile on April 2, 2025. (Photo by RAUL BRAVO / AFP) (Photo by RAUL BRAVO/AFP via Getty Images) Picture: AFP via Getty Images
COPPER producers must spend about $332bn on new mines to avert a supply shock, BloombergNEF said on Tuesday.
Without that outlay, the market faces a 20 million ton shortfall by 2050 and a squeeze that would slow electrification. It should tip into deficit by 2028 as demand rises and miners struggle to replace falling output.
Copper is by far the most supply-constrained metal in BNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook. Electrification-linked demand should jump 89% to 23.3Mt in 2050, over half the total.
Electrified transport is the fastest-growing use, the analysts said, as electric cars, trucks and buses need copper in motors, inverters, battery packs, high-voltage wiring and charging. Construction, industry and consumer goods still matter, while data centres are a “drop in the ocean”.
Ample copper may lie underground, but new and expanded mines are coming on stream too slowly to offset declining output. Absent investment, supply could fall 14.5% to 25.7Mt by 2050 from 30Mt in 2026. Lower ore grades will raise costs, and recycling won’t compensate.
Even with the $332bn, the gap likely persists until at least 2043 because new mines take 17 years on average to develop.
Chile remains top producer despite output slipping to 4.8Mt in 2050 from 5.8Mt this year. Its share of mined supply rises to 28% from 24% as others fall faster.