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Deutsche Bank says copper prices could surge to $10 a pound by mid-2027 as shrinking supplies of readily available metal threaten a liquidity crisis, challenging a more cautious outlook from Goldman Sachs.
The bullish forecast comes as Goldman Sachs warns its $15,400-per-tonne copper price projection for 2027 faces downside risks following the US midterm elections. The bank estimates prices could average $14,600 a tonne if investor positioning remains unchanged, or about $14,500 if reduced tariff expectations undermine US stockpiling.
“We are probably today in the scarcest copper environment since the 1980s,” Daniel Ghali, Deutsche Bank’s head of metals research, told MINING.COM in an interview this week. “The market still is not pricing in the kind of scarcity that we’re seeing.”
The competing forecasts expose a growing divide over whether copper’s next major price move will be driven by tightening physical supplies or weakening investor confidence. The outcome could have significant consequences for miners, manufacturers and investors as the market approaches 2027.
Mined copper
Ghali said global above-ground copper inventories have probably fallen to their lowest levels since 2006, with much of the remaining metal increasingly inaccessible to buyers outside China and the US.
Deutsche Bank estimates that by the end of 2026, only 30% of those inventories will be available for purchase, with the remainder effectively locked within the two countries. Continued stockpiling could push accessible supplies dangerously close to zero, Ghali warned.
The shortage is already evident in physical markets, even though benchmark prices have retreated. Copper cathode premiums in Shanghai have reached record levels, while pricing across commodity exchanges points to increasingly tight supplies.
Ghali said the disconnect reflects the difference between the amount of copper in existence and the metal actually available for immediate delivery.
“It’s not that demand is so strong at the moment,” he said. “We think demand is resilient, but it’s not a demand story per se. It’s actually a liquidity crisis that’s in the making.”
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) offers a contrasting outlook, forecasting that the global refined copper surplus will more than triple by 2027 as smelter production rebounds faster than demand.
The projection highlights a distinction between overall supply and the metal available for immediate delivery. While the ICSG anticipates excess refined production, Deutsche Bank argues that inventories concentrated in China and the US could leave buyers elsewhere competing for an increasingly limited pool of accessible copper.
The pressure could intensify without any significant acceleration in consumption, Ghali said. He noted that manufacturers are largely buying copper as needed, leaving the market vulnerable if steady purchasing exhausts available inventories.
Global copper surplus to more than triple by 2027: ICSG
Ghali pointed to the October 2025 silver squeeze as an example of how restricted liquidity can magnify price movements. Once available supplies become sufficiently constrained, even relatively small purchases can produce outsized price increases.
Goldman Sachs sees a different set of risks. The bank argues that investor positioning, rather than physical demand, presents the biggest threat to its copper outlook.
Concerns that a Democrat-controlled Congress could slow artificial intelligence investment and data-centre construction have made investors more cautious about the sector’s future demand for copper.
“The main risk to our forecast stems from positioning rather than physical demand,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
Tariff uncertainty
US trade policy represents another potential catalyst for copper prices, particularly as markets assess the likelihood of tariffs on refined metal.
Ghali identified proposed duties on refined copper cathode as the most immediate policy issue facing the market. He cited a US Commerce Department recommendation for a 15% tariff beginning in January 2027, rising to 30% a year later.
Such measures could encourage additional stockpiling in the US, further restricting supplies available to consumers elsewhere.
A shortage of ore is causing a pricing revolution in copper
Goldman Sachs, however, warned that diminished expectations for tariffs could undermine its assumptions about US inventory accumulation. A reversal of this year’s stockbuilding could release metal back into international markets and put additional pressure on prices.
The bank said copper could fall below its revised scenarios if most of the US inventories accumulated in 2026 were redistributed globally.
Ghali acknowledged that a recession poses the most serious threat to Deutsche Bank’s bullish forecast because weaker industrial consumption could eliminate the pressure created by scarce inventories.
“Scarcity is only relevant for as long as demand for that commodity is relevant,” he said.
Deutsche Bank does not expect a recession in 2027 and anticipates little disruption to AI infrastructure spending or global data-centre expansion.
Beyond copper, Ghali described a widening divergence between precious metals. He expects gold to benefit from persistent structural demand, including purchases by central banks and other official institutions, even as higher interest rates weigh on investment sentiment.