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BHP chief executive officer Brandon Craig has used his first annual general meeting to champion the company’s growing copper business while acknowledging the missteps behind cost increases at its Canadian Jansen potash project.
Craig outlined plans to expand production across BHP’s portfolio, with copper expected to lead growth, while stressing the importance of delivering projects within budget.
“Company-wide, our current plans are expected to support compound annual production growth of approximately three to four per cent through to 2035, including around five per cent annual growth for copper,” Craig said.
“It is essential that this growth is delivered to plan.”
Craig said BHP was investing significantly in its project execution capability.
“Our commitment is to execute projects safely, on time, on budget, and with a clear focus on shareholder value,” he said.
“That is our capital discipline at work.”
That commitment came into focus during shareholder questions about cost increases at Jansen, where BHP is preparing to establish potash as a new pillar of its portfolio.
Craig attributed the overruns to inflation exceeding historical assumptions and an underestimation of the effort required to achieve planned construction productivity. He said post-COVID inflation of 12–13 per cent annually for just over two years had materially affected costs, while BHP had subsequently worked to improve field productivity.
“We underestimated the effort it would take us to get the productivity to the benchmarks we set out when we originally estimated the cost for the project,” Craig said.
Despite those setbacks, he maintained Jansen’s resource base and potential operating performance supported continued investment.
Craig said the business could operate for more than 70 years, with projected operating costs of around $120 per tonne against a current market price of $300 per tonne, supporting expected margins of about 60 per cent.
BHP’s latest quarterly update reported Jansen Stage 1 was 87 per cent complete and on track for first production in mid-2027.
Copper has already reshaped BHP’s earnings profile, contributing more than half of earnings for the first time in financial year 2026.
“Today, BHP is the world’s largest copper producer,” Craig said.
“That matters because copper is becoming increasingly important to the modern economy.”
Olympic Dam recorded its highest production in more than 20 years. However, September-quarter copper output was affected by planned grade declines, maintenance, severe Chilean weather, safety stoppages and a conveyor failure at Carrapateena.
Guidance remained unchanged, while copper prices around 50 per cent higher than a year earlier provided an earnings tailwind.
Speaking ahead of the AGM, Sharesies Australia head of capital markets Jacki Neumann identified copper performance and capital allocation as early tests of Craig’s leadership.
“Some of that drop was planned, and full-year guidance hasn’t changed,” Neumann said.
“But investors will want confidence that BHP can manage the headwinds and that its copper pipeline can translate into reliable returns.”
BHP continued advancing that pipeline through funding for the Escondida New Concentrator in Chile, an expanded South Australian resource base and opportunities across the Americas.
Neumann also highlighted the challenge of funding growth while maintaining distributions.
“BHP is investing across copper, potash and iron ore and it needs to do that without squeezing shareholder returns,” she said.
“Investors want to see cost control, projects delivered as promised, and capital continuing to earn a solid return.”
The AGM highlighted financial year 2026 dividends totalling approximately $2.40 per Australian share, equivalent to $US8.7 billion and BHP’s highest dividend in four years.
BHP chair Ross McEwan said the company’s portfolio supported its confidence in the outlook.
“One of the reasons we’re confident is because of the way our business is positioned for the future. Mining is cyclical; there are peaks and there are troughs. What we have is a portfolio that is designed to perform through the cycle,” McEwan said.
“The world needs growth; it needs new infrastructure, reliable energy, modern technology, and food security. All of these things depend on the resources that BHP produces.”
Safety also remained a focus following the deaths of two colleagues at Escondida and Peak Downs, with investigations underway.
For Craig, delivering BHP’s growth ambitions remains the central task.
“Our ambition is simple: to win the next decade for BHP.”
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