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The global nickel market is set to end 2026 in a slight surplus, the International Nickel Study Group said on Tuesday, reversing a forecast for a deficit made six months ago, with the oversupply seen widening next year.
Global demand for primary nickel, used in stainless steel and rechargeable batteries, is expected to reach about 3.85 million metric tons in 2026, up 7.6% from last year, the INSG said after two days of meetings among government and industry representatives from member countries in Lisbon.
Production is forecast at 3.87 million tons.
That would leave the market in a surplus of 19,000 tons, compared with a deficit of 32,000 tons forecast in April, which would have been the first annual shortfall since 2021. The INSG had previously projected demand of 3.75 million tons and production of 3.72 million tons for 2026.
“The INSG expects the stainless steel sector to expand further in the second half of 2026 and through 2027,” the group said in a statement. It added that nickel’s role in the electric-vehicle battery market had grown more slowly than expected because of competition from lithium iron phosphate battery technology.
Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, approved lower nickel ore production quotas for 2026 than last year, the group said, noting that applications for 2027 quotas can be submitted until November 15.
The INSG expects the nickel surplus to widen to 70,000 tons in 2027, with demand reaching 4 million tons and production rising to 4.07 million tons.
(Reporting by Bengaluru Commodities Desk and Tom Daly. Editing by Mark Potter)
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