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Copper prices recovered at the start of this week, supported by improving market sentiment, a weaker greenback and growing concerns over tightening supplies in China. In late-morning trading in New York, Comex copper for December rose to $6.35 per pound. The red metal remains about 13% higher since the beginning of this year.
The recovery comes amid mounting evidence of supply constraints in the largest consumer of copper globally, China, with the Yangshan copper premium climbing to a new high of $230 per ton at the start of the week.
Meanwhile, inventories monitored by Shanghai declined to less than 34,000 tons, their lowest level in roughly three years. Physical market conditions have also prompted aggressive buying activity. Recent reports hint at Trafigura having approached various traders and producers, seeking substantial copper volumes for this and next month, reportedly offering competitive prices to secure shipments.
Shanghai spot premiums have, meanwhile, more than doubled in the past few weeks to reach $392 per ton, which equates to a little over 2,600 yuan. This reflects the growing competition for available supplies, a shortage that has seen some Chinese smelters struggle to obtain both copper scrap and concentrate.
Restrictions on the illegal mining of copper in the DRC, a major supplier of copper to China, could further complicate sourcing.
Amy Gower, a metals strategist at Morgan Stanley, attributes some of the market tightness to reduced growth in the production of refined copper rather than particularly strong consumption. In addition, she highlights how the recovery faces an important obstacle: substantial inventories held in the United States.
Comex warehouses contain over 730,000 tons of copper, which is more than double their holdings in 2025. Although rising Chinese premiums could make shipments from the U.S. commercially attractive, traders remain reluctant to release material that could command higher prices if Washington eventually imposes import tariffs.
The outlook is also complicated by political and economic uncertainty. Recent U.S. midterm election results have weakened expectations of imposing additional tariffs on refined copper, potentially reducing the incentive for further stockpiling.
Concerns that tighter restrictions on data-center development could slow AI-related investment have also weighed on sentiment. This is significant because data centers, electricity networks, renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles all require substantial quantities of copper.
Despite the metal’s recent gains, analysts caution that prices could face further pressure. Expectations of additional supply from Indonesia and a potentially weaker demand environment could challenge the market next year. Nevertheless, declining visible inventories and persistent supply constraints remain important sources of support.
Those structural supply-side issues give exploration firms like Numa Numa Resources Inc. significant leverage in attracting investors to back their programs.
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