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The first 12,000 tonnes of copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have been transferred to Project Vault this week, Kostas Bintas, global head of metals of Swiss trader Mercuria, said at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London on October 14-16.
Project Vault is a US strategic critical minerals reserve backed by the Export-Import Bank of the United States, to which Mercuria committed $500 million in September.
US policy reshapes copper flows
Bintas was speaking at a panel about capturing value from Africa’s mineral reserves, where copper was once again a hot topic after prices hit record highs in September. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange reached an intraday all-time high of $14,875 per tonne on September 10, 2026, amid tight supply outside the US and metal flowing into US warehouses ahead of a possible refined copper tariff.
The tightness has been sharper in the raw material market. Fastmarkets calculated the copper concentrates TC implied smelters purchase, cif Asia Pacific, at $(237.95) per tonne on Friday October 9, 2026, down by 423% from $(45.50) per tonne on January 2, 2026.
“A lot of policy initiatives started to have real effect,” Bintas said. In his view, the copper price shows the impact of policies, with 18% of the world’s copper stock “sitting in the USA,” driven by a risk of the US potentially imposing tariffs on copper cathodes.
Data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) points to a larger share. Commodity Exchange (COMEX) copper stocks were 691,671 tonnes at the end of August, up by 52.5% from the end of 2025.
Including LME-warrant stocks in US warehouses and reported US producer and consumer stocks, about 830,000 tonnes, or around 42% of the refined copper stocks tracked by the ICSG, were held in the US.
The critical minerals industry saw a lot of attention from policymakers globally in the past four to five years, and will see more, according to Bintas.
Africa targets growth in copper production
Data centers and related infrastructure are driving copper demand, Phesto Musonda from Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Investments Holdings (ZCCM-IH) said, describing copper as “a commodity to stay for many years.” Zambia plans to invest more in mineral exploration, he added.
The DRC aims to become the world’s largest copper producer by 2030, said Baraka Kabemba, chief executive of Gécamines, DRC’s state-owned mining and trading company.
“Two decades ago, we were producing half a million tonnes of copper cathodes per year, and this is where we want to go,” Kabemba told Fastmarkets on the sidelines of the summit.
Chile remains the largest producer, with mine output of 2.88 million tonnes in January-July 2026, down by 7% year on year, while the DRC produced 1.97 million tonnes, broadly flat, according to the ICSG.
In January, Gécamines said it planned to sell 100,000 tonnes of copper from the Tenke Fungurume mine, one of the country’s biggest, to the US in 2026.
DRC strengthens its role in global copper supply
The DRC is the world’s largest exporter of refined copper, shipping 2.40 million tonnes in 2025, nearly a quarter of global refined exports and well ahead of Chile’s 1.64 million tonnes. Most of its output is SX-EW cathode, which reached 2.85 million tonnes last year.
The country’s copper-in-concentrate production fell by 29.7% year on year to 256,800 tonnes in January-July, while SX-EW output rose by 5.9% to 1.71 million tonnes. Concentrate exports fell by 29.9% in the first half of 2026, while blister and anode exports more than doubled to 81,100 tonnes.
The ICSG’s October forecast attributes the DRC’s lower concentrate output to continued constraints at Kamoa-Kakula. Ivanhoe Mines suspended production at the Kakula mine in May 2025 after seismic activity, later allowing its eastern section to flood, and has said it will overhaul mining methods across the complex.
US investment backs DRC critical minerals strategy
In 2025, Gécamines and trader Mercuria created a joint venture (JV), backed by the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), to sell metal produced in the DRC — with the collaboration becoming key to the DRC state miner re-establishing itself as a major supplier of copper in the international market.
The DFC looks at whether partner countries can develop infrastructure and productive capacity alongside mining, said Biro Condé, regional managing director for West and Central Africa at the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). “That is [what is] creating transformative impact beyond the tax revenues,” he said.
The DFC’s focus is on strategic minerals, and it is “interested” in manganese, lithium, zinc and other minerals for energy transition, including rare earths, Condé said.
It is also “attentive to iron ore projects,” he added.
African copper mine output forecast to rise
The ICSG expects African mine output to rise by 13% to 5.18 million tonnes in 2027, according to its October 14 forecast, which cites improving operating rates in the DRC and new mine start-ups.
It forecasts a global refined copper surplus of 104,000 tonnes in 2026 and 368,000 tonnes in 2027.
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