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Digital gold could bring $95 billion (C$135 billion) in new money into bullion by 2031 if providers can win investors’ trust, the World Gold Council and Boston Consulting Group estimate.
A joint report released Monday projects the market for digital gold, which lets investors own physical bullion through digital tokens or online accounts while a custodian stores the metal, could more than triple to $160 billion–$170 billion by 2031 from the $45 billion–$55 billion it’s worth today.
“I have no doubt that there are people that have bought Tether or Paxos that would have never bought a gold ETF or bought a physical gold bar. That created new demand. No question,” Australian precious metals dealer ABC Bullion general manager Jordan Eliseo said in the report.
The gold industry’s opportunity is reaching buyers beyond its existing bullion and exchange-traded fund customers. About 65% of untapped demand comes from people who haven’t invested in gold, the researchers estimate. Their $95-billion figure excludes money shifted from other gold products.
The study excludes gold-backed exchange-traded funds, leveraged products and gold-backed stablecoins. Vaulted accounts represent 89% of the digital market, with tokens making up the rest.
Trust hurdle
The report’s findings draw on a survey of more than 12,000 retail investors across 12 countries, including Canada, and interviews with 20 industry experts. Responses informed a model covering 96 countries that represent 98% of global investable wealth.
Nearly nine in 10 respondents would consider digital gold under the right conditions. But stated interest hasn’t translated into widespread ownership: the category represents less than 1% of the physical investment gold market.
Four in five investors prioritize trusting the provider before investing, the researchers found. Clearer regulation, proof that physical metal backs a product and a workable route to claim that metal are central to attracting buyers.
Some products allow physical redemption at only one location worldwide or require holdings equivalent to a 400-oz. bar. Lower minimums and more delivery locations could make that protection more useful to retail buyers.
Access matters, too. Adoption is up to seven times higher in markets where digital gold is available through familiar banking, payment and multipurpose apps. Awareness of digital gold options reached 76% in Indonesia and 71% in India, compared with 19% in Canada.
Younger investors offer another opening. Half of respondents aged 25–34 knew about digital gold, compared with 23% of those aged 55 and older.
Forecast limits
The $700-billion opportunity cited in the report, “Digital Gold: Unlocking a $700-billion opportunity”, represents estimated additional demand if all barriers to adoption disappeared immediately, using today’s population and wealth.
Outcomes vary widely with the pace of change. The bear case puts the market at $70 billion–$80 billion by 2031 if barriers persist. Faster improvements could lift it to $270 billion–$280 billion by the same time.
All scenarios hold the gold price steady and exclude major hacks, fraud or custody failures. Those omissions matter: 44% of respondents identified a major security breach as the event that would most undermine their confidence.
The Council has its own stake in overcoming those obstacles. It plans to introduce Gold as a Service, shared infrastructure intended to help issuers arrange gold sourcing, custody, compliance and redemption. It outlined the proposal in March.
Existing providers see digital products feeding demand for physical metal as well.
“We had the same concerns when we launched DigiGold, wondering whether it would draw customers away from our physical gold proposition,” Royal Mint Managing Director Andrew Dickey said in the report. “What we find is that DigiGold is a gateway for customers moving from digital into owning physical bullion.”