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Global shortages of metals critical to the energy transition are expected to ease significantly over coming decades, but copper remains a major exception, with a looming supply deficit requiring $332 billion in new mining investment.
BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) Transition Metals Outlook 2026 forecasts that nine of the 10 materials studied will have sufficient long-term supply capacity through 2050, marking a substantial improvement on previous projections.
However, copper supply could fall 20 million tonnes short of global demand by 2050, representing a deficit equivalent to 44 per cent of projected consumption.
The report forecasts copper shortages emerging as early as 2028, driven by growing demand from electric vehicles, electricity grids and other electrification technologies.
Global copper demand is expected to increase 61 per cent between 2026 and 2050, reaching almost 46 million tonnes annually.
Demand from electrified transport alone is projected to rise 244 per cent to 11.4 million tonnes over the period.
For investors, the findings reinforce copper’s position as a potential long-term growth opportunity, even as the outlook for several other energy transition commodities shifts towards more balanced supply or oversupply.
BNEF estimates that closing the copper supply gap will require $332 billion in investment in new mines.
However, bringing a new mine into production takes an average of 17 years, highlighting the challenge of developing sufficient capacity before shortages become more pronounced.
Declining ore grades and years of underinvestment in exploration are adding to the pressure.
BNEF head of metals and mining Martin Tengler said the outlook for transition commodities had changed considerably.
“The outlook for transition metals has changed dramatically. Investment in new supply and advances in battery technology have eased many of the concerns we saw just a few years ago,” Tengler said.
“The challenge now is less about whether the world can produce enough metals overall, and more about whether the right materials will be available when and where they are needed.”
While copper faces a substantial structural deficit, other battery metals are confronting different market conditions.
Lithium demand is forecast to nearly triple from 1.6 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2026 to 4.8 million tonnes by 2050.
Graphite demand is expected to more than double from 3.3 million tonnes to 6.9 million tonnes over the same period, supported by electric vehicle and energy storage growth.
However, increased adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries has reduced BNEF’s long-term demand projections for nickel and cobalt.
The report anticipates downward price pressure on cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel and palladium, potentially forcing producers to reduce costs, curtail production or close capacity.
Supply security remains another concern, with China continuing to dominate global refining.
Eight of the 10 materials studied have more than half their refining capacity concentrated in a single country, including seven where China holds that position.
Recycling will also become increasingly important, with six materials requiring recycled supply to meet demand by 2035, rising to eight by 2050.
For copper investors, the report highlights a growing distinction between commodities facing potential oversupply and a metal confronting a prolonged structural shortage.
With new copper mines requiring substantial capital and lengthy development periods, the challenge is increasingly whether investment can arrive quickly enough to meet accelerating demand.
Read more: Could Fortescue’s copper technology signal a strategic shift?
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