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The mining industry’s fortunes have always been beholden to the winds of political sentiment and public policy, but it feels like in 2026 the flags are fluttering in several directions all at once.
In Australia, federal and state governments continue to promote the country’s investment attractiveness and seduce international companies to our shores with promises of high-quality mineral resources, stable regulatory conditions and skilled workforces.
In reality, only the first of these three promises can be given with any certainty. Australia does boast world-class reserves of almost all key commodities – whether the traditional base, precious and bulk ones or the emerging critical minerals – as well as the geology and professional and financial expertise to find more.
The other two promises come with much murkier waters.
On legislation and regulation, we appear far from stable and predictable. The Federal Labor Government has not been able to close the circle on the regulatory reform which would lead to a more efficient approvals system. It is too nervous about upsetting the left-wing side of its party and Greens members of federal and state parliaments to strip out unnecessary and duplicate processes. At the same time, rising community backlash against both renewables infrastructure and AI data centres is only going to make approvals for major projects of any nature more complicated.
It is not going to get easier. Trust in government and public institutions is at the lowest point in modern history. Trust in leaders is even lower, so the only quick fix for governments to counter distrust is to place further barriers in front of approvals, not to produce better outcomes, simply to cover themselves from legal challenges.
The courts are already involved. Last month we saw the High Court of Australia uphold a News South Wales Court of Appeal ruling that Mach Energy’s expansion of the Mt Pleasant thermal coal mine would cause local climate change impacts. Three of the five High Court judges dismissed the appeal, saying the NSW Independent Planning Commission’s assessment needed to consider all greenhouse gas emissions, including Scope 3 (see page 61).
Quite apart from the “emission economics” debate about whether such a decision will result in more or less greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere, it is a dent to Australia’s investment reputation, as Chamber of Mines & Energy WA chief executive Aaron Morey said following the decision.
“Governments need to clarify what this decision means for project approvals and provide certainty for investment,” Morey said.
Even when the decision falls in the mining sector’s favour, the uncertainty created by the situation can create lasting damage.
Also in October, the Federal Court ruled that former Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s 2024 declaration under Section 10 of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Heritage Protection Act regarding the approval of Regis Resources Ltd’s McPhillamys gold project was invalid, referring the matter back to the current Minister for redetermination (see page 5).
The ultimate outcome is a win for the company, but as Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Tania Constable said, the affair will be remembered in investment circles.
“The subsequent late-stage intervention by the Commonwealth put more than $1 billion in proposed investment at risk and raised serious questions about the reliability of Australia’s approvals framework,” Constable said. “Australian mining investment relies on certainty of process, even if the outcomes of that process are not certain.”
Uncertainty also reigns when it comes to the third claim – Australia’s highly skilled labour force. The rise of right-wing populism as defined in Australia by One Nation, is leading every major party to hastily rewrite their immigration policies.
The glaring, unmentionable problem is that none of them adequately address a key issue – Australia has a severe lack of skilled workers.
Fortunately, I don’t have the space in this column to dive fully into immigration and the associated economic and cultural wars but suffice to say, a lack of workers will be another major handbrake to future mining development.
For all those concerns, a glimpse across the world could still allow ourselves to consider Australia “the lucky country”.
As our largest feature in this issue demonstrates, while policies are pointing towards a new golden age of mining in the US, there is still plenty of impediments to rhetoric becoming reality.
The same applies in Canada, although Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to be making progress. Even in Latin America, where political winds are blowing to the right, there is a feeling the backlash is not too far away.
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