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Did you know, in almost all post-US midterm election years, base metals price decline?
October 15, 2026
We observe an interesting historical precedent that cannot be ignored as we consider our 2027 forecasts for base metals. While history rarely repeats itself exactly, it often provides a useful framework for understanding potential risks and opportunities.
We aim to provide readers with a sense of likely market direction, key support and resistance levels and the major themes worth monitoring throughout the year.
Ultimately, this report is intended to stimulate discussion, challenge consensus views, and encourage readers to consider what the next chapter may hold for the base metals complex.
Noticeable themes:
- Post US midterm elections, the base metals complex often has a mildly strong start in Q1.
- But by Q2, that positive momentum starts to wane, giving way to persistent downward pressure that could keep prices down for most metals.
- It is worth mentioning that 2019 was the year under the Trump administration and has a higher probability to play out again in 2027.
- Only nickel stood in 2019, outperforming the rest of the complex.
Copper
Source: Fastmarkets, LME
Aluminium
Source: Fastmarkets, LME
Nickel
Source: Fastmarkets, LME
Zinc
Source: Fastmarkets, LME
Lead
Source: Fastmarkets, LME
Tin
Source: Fastmarkets, LME
DXY
Source: Fastmarkets
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