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查看配图Vale Base Metals CEO Shaun Usmar speaks at the Capital Projects Symposium. Credit: Blair McBride
Vale’s (NYSE: VALE) base metals unit aims to triple pre-tax profit to $5 billion (C$7 billion) this year, up from about $1.3 billion in 2024, when the business also consumed around $2 billion in cash, CEO Shaun Usmar says.
The push reflects sweeping cost reductions, an overhaul of operating accountability after years of missed production targets and about $10 billion in capital project overruns over 18 years, as well as stronger copper prices. Vale’s third-quarter results show its average realized copper price rose 56% year over year to $15,314 per tonne, outpacing a 44% increase in the benchmark London Metal Exchange price. Usmar is now betting that redesigned projects and brownfield expansions near existing infrastructure can deliver growth at substantially lower costs and higher returns.
“We aren’t just a turnaround story; we’re also a growth story,” Usmar said Monday at the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum’s (CIM) Capital Projects Symposium in Toronto.
The strategy comes as Western governments race to secure critical minerals supplies and reduce their dependence on China, which Usmar says has built a formidable lead through decades of investment in mineral resources and processing capacity. Against that backdrop, VBM is seeking to capitalize on its established mining and processing infrastructure in Canada and its extensive copper holdings in Brazil to expand production faster and at lower cost than developing entirely new operations. VBM has generated more than $1 billion in free cash flow this year, he added.
31% copper boost
VBM produced 382,300 tonnes of copper and 177,200 tonnes of nickel in 2025, increases of 10% and 11%, respectively, from the previous year. Copper output was its highest since 2018, while nickel production reached its highest level since 2022.
The company is targeting annual production of 420,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper and 210,000 to 250,000 tonnes of nickel by 2030. At the upper ends, those targets would represent increases of 31% and 41%, respectively, from last year’s levels.
VBM aims to produce about 700,000 tonnes of copper annually by 2035, an 83% increase from 2025 levels. Usmar said the company has the potential to go considerably further. VBM has also substantially increased exploration drilling, targeting 140,000 metres this year, up from about 30,000 metres in 2024.
Ramp-up in Canada
Much of that growth is expected to come from existing mining districts rather than entirely new operations. In Canada, VBM is seeking to increase throughput at its Sudbury operations and ramp up underground production at the Voisey’s Bay nickel mine in Labrador. In Brazil, it is pursuing a series of copper developments in the Carajás district, including projects designed to use existing processing facilities and infrastructure.
A central part of the strategy has been overhauling how VBM designs and executes capital projects. The company has reduced projected capital spending across its development portfolio by more than 30%, while lifting expected rates of return from the low-to-mid teens to more than 20%, Usmar said.
Halving costs
He pointed to a brownfield project in Brazil that was initially expected to cost more than $500 million. Shortly after joining VBM in late 2024, Usmar rejected the proposed design and ordered a reassessment. The redesigned project now requires nearly half the original capital investment, he said.
The changes followed a review of VBM’s project development practices, which Usmar said had become overly bureaucratic, with too many specialized teams working in isolation and insufficient attention to execution risks early in the planning process.
The company has also accelerated some projects previously scheduled for the 2040s into the early 2030s by taking a district-wide approach to development and placing greater emphasis on permitting, operational readiness and the ability to execute.
Productivity, efficiency gains
Despite the emphasis on copper growth in Brazil, Usmar said VBM’s Canadian operations offer substantial opportunities to increase production by improving productivity and making better use of existing infrastructure.
Sudbury, where VBM operates six mines, is central to that strategy. The company has been mining in the Ontario mining hotspot for 125 years and operates an integrated network of mining and processing facilities that Usmar described as increasingly difficult to replicate in the Western world.
The district’s polymetallic deposits produce copper, cobalt, platinum group metals, gold and silver alongside nickel. VBM’s smelting and refining infrastructure allows it to capture additional value from those metals.
‘Billions in replacement value’
The company’s Canadian processing infrastructure represents tens of billions of dollars in replacement value, giving it an advantage as Western governments seek to strengthen domestic critical minerals supply chains, Usmar said.
However, he cautioned that Canadian mining operations need to improve productivity to fully capitalize on their existing assets. Project studies frequently assume internationally competitive productivity levels, particularly for underground development, even though actual performance falls well short of those benchmarks.
“We need to protect and leverage the mining assets and processing infrastructure that we already have while continuing to build the next generation of mines,” Usmar said.
‘Unprecedented moment’
The CEO also welcomed growing federal and provincial support for mining, saying governments are moving with an urgency he has rarely seen in three decades in the industry.
“In fact, this is a rare and unprecedented moment when the industry is being outpaced by government when it comes to embracing change,” he said.
However, he warned that faster permitting, infrastructure investment and public financing must translate into projects that actually deliver production.
He urged governments to direct more support toward brownfield developments, which can leverage existing infrastructure, workforces and processing capacity to bring additional critical minerals supply to market sooner. “Brownfield development represents one of the best opportunities to increase near-term supply by leveraging existing infrastructure, established workforces, regulatory knowledge, and existing relationships,” Usmar said.