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Gem Diamonds (LON: GEMD) has raised its 2026 production and sales forecasts after exceptional large diamonds helped lift third-quarter revenue by 35% despite a decline in carats sold.
The Africa-focused miner now expects to recover 78,000 to 80,000 carats this year, up from its previous forecast of 75,000 to 78,000 carats, citing operational performance and cost controls. It also increased its sales guidance to 79,000 to 81,000 carats from 77,000 to 80,000.
“Sales of Letšeng’s rough diamonds in September achieved good prices, with results further supported by the sale of the exceptional 347 carat Lesotho Jubilee,” CEO Clifford Elphick said. “These results are encouraging indicators that demand and prices for Letšeng quality diamonds are firm.”
The stronger outlook follows the company’s return to profitability in the first half of 2026, underscoring the importance of high-value stones to its financial performance even as production volumes decline.
Large stones
Third-quarter revenue rose to $34.8 million from $25.7 million a year earlier, although sales volumes fell 22% to 17,899 carats from 22,830. The average realized price jumped 73% to $1,945 per carat from $1,124.
Four diamonds sold for more than $1 million each, generating a combined $22.2 million, or nearly 64% of quarterly revenue. They included the 347-carat Lesotho Jubilee, a white Type II diamond recovered in the second quarter and sold during the third.
Recoveries at the Letšeng mine in Lesotho declined 13% to 19,299 carats from 22,268 a year earlier. Three diamonds weighing more than 100 carats were recovered during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to six.
Mining and processing activities remained concentrated on the Main Pipe, with just 7,143 tonnes of ore processed from the remaining material in the current Satellite Pipe cutback. Preparations are continuing for the next phase of mining in the Satellite Pipe.
Financing
Gem Diamonds is finalizing commercial terms with Nedbank and Standard Bank to renew its revolving credit facilities ahead of their Dec. 21, 2026 expiry.
The refinancing comes as Lesotho moves to introduce a variable diamond royalty rate of between 3% and 6%, a policy change welcomed by the company.
“The agreement by the Lesotho Government to introduce a variable royalty rate of between 3% and 6% is a good policy decision ensuring the long-term sustainability of the mine,” Elphick said.
Gem Diamonds shares fell 14.2% to 12.44 pence in mid-afternoon trading in London, giving the company a market capitalization of £17.4 million ($23.5 million).