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查看配图：Geopolitics, tight investment to shape mining in 2026: WoodMacAn excavator loads ore into a haul truck at an open-pit mine. (Stock image by Parilov.)
Over the past four years, a group of obscure commodities has risen from the back of a science textbook to the centre of some of the biggest geopolitical headlines of our times.
You might recall the attention last year on Ukraine’s mineral potential as Washington and Kyiv negotiated an agreement. The two countries signed a reconstruction investment fund agreement in 2025. Turning that interest into a source of minerals will depend on finding deposits that can be financed and mined.
And of course, China has played its role. Its dominance of critical mineral processing became a source of geopolitical leverage in April 2025, when it hit back against U.S. tariffs by imposing export restrictions on rare earths.
Times are changing
The U.S. is the world’s most financially sophisticated economy. So why would it bother with the dirty, low-margin business of mining? That’s the attitude that left it heavily dependent on mineral imports.
But the West’s lack of interest in mining is changing. Technology investors are paying more attention to vulnerable raw material supply chains. Investors backed by the likes of Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates have put money into exploration through ventures such as KoBold Metals. U.S. vehicle manufacturers, including Ford, Tesla and General Motors, have taken to signing supply agreements with mining developers.
Meanwhile, Washington is backing upgrades to the Lobito Corridor in Angola to improve access to Africa’s copper mines. It also signed a historical $13-billion deal with Australia, aimed at bringing patches of raw dirt into operating mines.
U.S. politics is divided on many issues, but the need to secure mineral supply chains is one of the few areas of bipartisan agreement.
Home-grown projects
Mineral self-sufficiency won’t come quickly or easily for America. But there is some movement.
U.S. exploration was growing faster than the global average, fuelled by increased interest from both major and junior companies, according to a 2024 report by S&P Global. Even so, after decades of reliance on external mineral supplies, the U.S. still lags some of the larger exploration jurisdictions.
The U.S. exploration budget totalled $1.46 billion in 2025, compared with $3.28 billion in Latin America and $2.32 billion in Canada, according to S&P Global.
Investment angle
For investors, there is a precedent. In the early 2000s, exploration spending rose around the world as China industrialized and needed more commodities. Australia was one of the main beneficiaries, becoming a major supplier to the booming Asian region.
This time, growth might come from the U.S. drive to shore up its own mineral security. The U.S. mining push favours home-grown projects, where exploration today can generate new mines within the country. That could make the U.S. one of the most active regions for exploration in the coming years.
Benefits for explorers
Companies that discover a deposit worth mining in the U.S. could avoid some of the tariff risks facing competing imports. That could help operating margins and potentially give them access to better pricing.
During the volatile exploration stage, companies may also be able to tap U.S. government grants or secure offtake deals with North American manufacturers and technology companies. Location could give them an advantage in those discussions.
That’s why junior mining stocks with projects on U.S. soil could hold an edge in the years to come. The opportunity extends from grassroots exploration to projects nearing feasibility.
Editor’s note: This column was written before the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections. James Cooper is a geologist based in Australia who runs the commodities investment service Diggers and Drillers. Follow him on X at @JCooperGeo.