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JPMorgan (NYSE) sees potential for the US to more than double its annual mined copper production through new projects and expansions, reversing decades of decline as Washington pushes to secure domestic critical minerals supplies.
The investment bank estimates the country could add 1.3 million tonnes of annual copper capacity, ranking it third globally for potential supply growth behind Chile and Argentina. However, most of that production is unlikely to come online until after 2030.
US copper output has halved over the past 30 years to roughly 1 million tonnes annually, largely because of underinvestment, JPMorgan estimates. The country’s share of global production has plunged from about 50% in 1900 to less than 5% today.
The potential revival comes as the US seeks to reduce its dependence on foreign mineral supplies. But higher development costs, lengthy permitting processes and limited domestic processing capacity could constrain how quickly new mines contribute to production.
Resolution’s potential
The proposed Resolution Copper mine in Arizona accounts for roughly half of the additional US copper capacity identified by JPMorgan, making it central to the bank’s long-term growth outlook.
The underground project, a joint venture between Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) and BHP (ASX: BHP), could produce about 18 million tonnes of copper over a 40-year mine life, according to the companies. At full production, it could meet as much as 25% of US copper demand.
However, Resolution still faces permitting requirements and technical studies, with production unlikely to begin before 2030.
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Development costs present another obstacle. JPMorgan estimates US copper projects require about $28,000 in capital investment for each tonne of annual production capacity, compared with a global average of $26,000.
The higher costs could weigh on project economics, particularly for large underground developments requiring substantial infrastructure before production begins.
Near-term opportunities
JPMorgan identifies Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE), the largest US copper producer, as one of the best-positioned companies to expand domestic output in the medium term.
The bank estimates Freeport has more than 250,000 tonnes of potential annual production growth from brownfield expansions at existing operations.
Such projects could deliver copper sooner than new mines because they can use established infrastructure and avoid some of the permitting and construction challenges facing greenfield developments.
Regulatory changes could also improve the outlook. The US FAST-41 framework, established in 2025 to streamline federal reviews of major infrastructure projects, offers a potential route to shorter permitting timelines for eligible mines.
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Advances in in-situ leaching, which extracts copper from ore without conventional excavation, and the restart of idled mines could provide further production gains, JPMorgan says.
Yet expanding mine output alone would not guarantee greater US copper self-sufficiency. The country faces a primary copper supply deficit of about 1 million tonnes and would need additional smelting and refining capacity to process more domestically mined concentrate.
That leaves the pace of investment in processing infrastructure, alongside mine development, as a key factor in determining how much of the potential production increase translates into a stronger domestic copper supply chain.