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Alphamin was seeking to diversify its tin concentrate sales through a potential offtake agreement with US refiner Nathan Trotter, chief executive officer Eoin O’Driscoll told Fastmarkets in an exclusive LME Week interview.
The company was in talks to supply concentrates through its existing offtakers, with traders involved in the negotiations and a source at Nathan Trotter later confirming to Fastmarkets that an agreement was close.
Both parties expected to reach an agreement within weeks, ahead of the planned first-quarter 2027 commissioning of Nathan Trotter’s new processing capacity.
Volumes remained under discussion but would be “material, although not the majority of Alphamin’s annual production of 20,000 tonnes,” a source at Nathan Trotter said.
O’Driscoll said the agreement was not part of a “grand strategy” but would diversify Alphamin’s sales footprint.
“The east will continue to refine the majority of the world’s tin, but diversification is good for us and good for everybody,” he said.
Despite seeking regional diversification in its offtakes, Alphamin would continue to send most of its concentrates to China, with around 70% sold to Yunnan due to their competitive treatment charges (TCs), he added.
“The deal makes sense from Alphamin’s perspective, but I question whether Nathan Trotter is ready to import concentrates next year,” one trader said.
“Regardless, the loss of Alphamin’s concentrates is unlikely to affect Yunnan’s smelters given their flexibility in supply,” they added.
Bisie security risks support diversification
Geographical diversification also remained in the company’s interest given the continued security risks around the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
“The West is very interested in getting involved in tin now and I think everyone knows the US government was actively involved in peace negotiations in the region which created space for us to get back in [to the mine site],” O’Driscoll said. “It’s in our interest to show something in return for that.”
Alphamin halted production at Bisie in March and April 2025 due to security concerns linked to the Rwanda-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebel activity nearby, before beginning a phased restart in April.
Reuters reported at the time that the fate of Bisie had figured in US-led discussions involving the DRC and Rwanda after M23 rebels withdrew from Walikale.
The subsequent agreement between the DRC and Rwanda stipulated a prohibition of hostilities, disarmament of non-state armed groups, facilitation of refugees’ return and a regional economic integration framework, according to a statement released by the US Department of State on June 18.
Fighting has nevertheless continued in the region. In its October 21 update, the Critical Threats Project reported renewed fighting in eastern Masisi district, which borders Walikale, where Bisie is located. Both districts are in North Kivu province.
O’Driscoll described the security situation around Bisie as stable, saying fighting had not reached the area and Alphamin’s transport routes did not pass through M23-controlled territory.
Who is Nathan Trotter?
US-based tin refiner and recycler Nathan Trotter announced in September 2025 that it would invest $65 million to expand its Tin Ridge processing facility in Virginia.
The US Department of Defense awarded Nathan Trotter $19 million in September 2024 to support domestic tin smelting, refining and recycling capacity. The funding forms part of the overall $65 million investment, Fastmarkets learned.
In September 2026, the company agreed to purchase up to 100% of the tin concentrates produced by Huntore Australia under a multi-year offtake agreement.
Tin is designated a critical mineral in the US because of its importance in electronics and defense applications, particularly in solder used in circuit boards and electronic components.
Supply tightness eclipses AI-led tin demand
O’Driscoll attributed the bullish sentiment surrounding tin during LME Week to tight supply and a lack of significant new projects, rather than AI-linked demand.
“We do see AI coming in from a physical-demand sense, but it’s not very dramatic,” he said. “The real story is that supply is so constrained. You only need a small uptick in demand to create a real shortage.”
The International Tin Association forecasts that 100,000 tonnes of new tin supply will be required by 2035, CEO Helen Prins said at the China Nonferrous Metals Forum during LME Week.
Industrial-scale exploration remained scarce in the tin market, but geopolitical shifts had improved access to project financing, O’Driscoll said.
“The availability of capital for projects has increased exponentially with this geopolitical shift,” he said.
“Personally, I would say you’d need to see [LME tin prices] north of $40,000 per tonne on average to see sustained interest in really developing tin projects,” he added.
The London Metal Exchange cash/three-month tin price stood at $51,500 per tonne at the 5pm close on Wednesday October 28, up by $9,450 per tonne this year from $42,050 per tonne on January 1.
Turning to global supply, O’Driscoll said prolonged dewatering, diesel shortages due to export restrictions in China and declining ore grades continued to constrain stable output from Myanmar’s Man Maw mine.
Bisie output unaffected by Ebola outbreak
O’Driscoll said the Ebola outbreak had not affected production at Bisie, with no cases reported in the Walikale health zone despite infections elsewhere in North Kivu.
The closure of the DRC-Uganda border to passenger traffic had, however, created minor logistical problems for employees traveling home, he added.
“That’s a problem for our people because that’s how we get them back home,” O’Driscoll said. “But ultimately, it’s all manageable. Operations are continuing as normal and we don’t anticipate any disruption.”
The outbreak has since spread across eight DRC provinces, including North Kivu, and become the world’s second-largest on record, although cases remain concentrated in Ituri province.
As of October 25, the DRC had recorded 10,060 confirmed cases and 4,887 deaths, according to the World Health Organization’s African regional office.
Rainy season may disrupt concentrate exports
Alphamin provided a stable source of global tin supply in 2026, with second-quarter production edging up to 5,030 tonnes from 5,013 tonnes in the previous quarter, according to production results released on October 6.
However, as the company enters the rainy season in the DRC, O’Driscoll noted that production levels were unlikely to be affected but some logistical challenges from mine to port may be on the horizon for the first quarter of 2027.
“In previous rainy seasons we’ve always managed to get enough diesel in, but not necessarily enough trucks to get the concentrates out,” he said.
Fastmarkets’ monthly assessment of the tin 99.85% ingot premium, in-whs Baltimore stood at $1,200-1,450 per tonne on October 6, rising by 8% from $1,100-1,350 per tonne the month prior.
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