中文译文生成中，先为你显示原文。
After a long, grinding stretch for gold and silver, the question at this year’s New Orleans Investment Conference wasn’t who’s winning, but what inning we’re in.
Precious metals peaked early this year, and the correction that followed has now run for roughly eight months. In the bottom half of the year, gold is testing the US$4,000 an ounce level, and silver has retreated more than 50 percent, while many junior mining shares sit well below their highs, with tax-loss selling adding pressure heading into year-end.
At the same time, the longer-term case for the resource sector remains. Supply deficits, critical minerals sovereignty, and increasing investor appetite for hard assets are part of nearly every bull argument.
So, is this a mid-game pause in a long-running bull market, or a sign the best innings have already been played?
That was the question moderator Brien Lundin, CEO of Jefferson Financial, put to the Mining Share Panel at the New Orleans Investment Conference, held Oct. 28–31, 2026.
Joining him were Brent Cook, Senior Advisor at Exploration Insights; Don Durrett, Gold and Silver Mining Stock Analyst with goldstockdata.com; Nick Hodge, Co-Founder of Digest Publishing; Jeff Phillips, President of Global Market Development and strategic investor; and Jennifer Shaigec, CEO of Sandpiper Trading.
What inning are we in?
The panel generally agrees that the resource sector is closer to the start of the game than the end.
Cook suggested that, given how much the market has dropped, it’s approaching a turning point, which will provide support for next year. He likened it to being in the second inning of a double header. Durrett viewed the market as a little further along, noting that it’s been in a correction after a strong performance between August 2025 and January 2026.
“Getting ready to start the third inning, jumping into the second leg,” he said.
Hodge presented a more pragmatic approach, opining that the game was in the fifth inning as he pointed to a more than 20 percent correction in the gold and silver markets.
“I think there’s probably a blow off or some big event that’s going to send them much higher for the last three innings of the game,” he said. He also noted that the CRB commodity index was well below the highs set during the last cycle over a decade ago.
Phillips had a more long-term view of where commodity markets were heading, likening it to the second game of a seven-game World Series. He believes the sector is in a 10-year bull market, fueled by geopolitical tensions and strained supply chains.
“Over the longer term, I see commodity prices meeting a very, very big bull market,” he said.
Shaigec said, the game has reset somewhat and is sitting in the third or fourth inning. From her viewpoint, the market is still a long way from euphoria, and that uncertainty is making investors more risk-averse, with capital still being drawn into the tech sector.
Rain delays: What could stretch the correction
While the panelists agreed there is still a lot of game to be played, they disagreed on when the current reversal could end. Durrett noted that the current eight-month correction was already longer than the longest pullback between 2001 and 2011, but shorter than the two years recorded in the 1970s.
The panel also said headwinds went beyond the metals themselves, focusing on interest rates and a broad sell-off in the tech sector, which could drag down resource stocks with it.
Shaigec still sees the sector in a downturn, with no sign of a reversal on the horizon. She also pointed to pressures that she thinks many investors are overlooking.
“I think we’re still in a cyclical downturn, and I think we’re facing some headwinds with continued uncertainty. But we’re getting tax-loss selling now too, and I think a lot of people aren’t really thinking about the impact of Super El Niño,” she said.
She went on to explain how El Niño affected the resource sector in 2015, in particular in Peru and Chile, and how exploration-focused investors should be mindful of the uncertainty it can bring.
Another wildcard that could throw a curveball is what happens with AI and data centers. Cook, Lundin and Phillips all pointed to the AI bubble as a significant wildcard, and a burst could have implications for commodities and the global economy at large.
“If that happens, everything’s going to get thrown out with the bath water. Gold, silver, all the metals, all the commodities, all the mining stocks and the general stock market as well,” Lundin said.
However, he explained that it may be a necessary event, and that once the Fed comes in a rebound from a crash in AI stocks could fuel the next big surge in the market.
Cook echoed the point, calling the AI sector “the elephant in the room.” He pointed out that AI valuations are too high, and that a drop could drag down the resource sector with it. For Cook, it was just one part of the equation, as he suggested the current political climate in the United States could cause further chaos over the next two years.
“In normal times, I’d say things are looking pretty good in the short term, but I have no idea what the AI bubble is going to do, if it is a bubble, or what’s going to happen geopolitically around the world,” he said.
On more traditional growth pressures, Hodge pointed to how the Federal Reserve's slow response to inflation amid the US-Iran war worsened a correction in the precious metals space. He acknowledged that the war dragged on longer than the White House and Department of Defense communicated, which made the Fed’s role more challenging.
It wasn’t until September that the Federal Open Market Committee acted to increase the rate to the 3.75 to 4 percent range. Hodge anticipates that macro conditions will continue the hiking cycle, fueling a slowdown into the first quarter of 2027 before inflation begins to cool.
“I think a slowdown early in 2027, coupled with oil prices being compared to last February and March, will make the inflation number tick down and bring an end to this current hiking cycle,” he said.
There was some optimism at the conference. In an interview with the Investing News Network from the sidelines, Phillips stated that past resource booms started after liquidity crunches.
He said investors moved back into the resource sector after the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, then again after the real estate crisis in 2007 and 2008. Looking at today’s market, he sees investors misallocating capital, overspending in the AI sector, and nonsensical cash movements in private credit markets as more companies lend money to themselves.
“When there’s a liquidity crunch, what ends up happening is everything comes down. People have to sell, but coming out of that, whenever that does happen, I think the natural resource market is going to boom,” Phillips said.
Scouting the lineup: Vetting juniors
Uncertainty remains about how long a rain delay could last, and the panel’s best advice for investors is to focus on what they can control, and that is to start by understanding the companies they back.
Phillips said he starts with looking at how much of a company its management and directors own, and whether those holdings are fully reported as insider positions, then asks who financed the company and why.
Hodge focused on answering key questions about the company’s stability. What is the balance sheet like, and how much cash is available? He suggested looking at what catalysts are coming over the next six to 12 months and how it plans to pay for them. He also wants to know what the secondary plan is if a project doesn’t pan out. He suggested he is a bit of a contrarian and is bullish on uranium with investments in North Shore Uranium (TSXV:NSU), but has also focused on precious metals with a play in Au Gold (TSXV:AUGC).
Durrett and Cook said the best companies can explain their strategy and know what they’re doing, pointing to companies like Headwater Gold (CSE:HWG,OTCQB:HWAUF), Heliostar Metals (TSX:HSTR) and Honey Badger Silver (TSXV:TUF).
While Shaigec said a company’s history tells you more than its pitch and urged investors to check insider history, prior companies and how much dilution earlier shareholders faced. Her picks included Pacifica Silver (CSE:PSIL,OTCQB:PAGFF) and Faraday Copper (TSX:FDY,OTCQX:CPPKF).
Beyond vetting companies, Phillips also implied investors should be patient in today’s market.
In an interview with the Investing News Network from the sidelines of the conference, Phillips said past resource booms started after liquidity crunches. He explained how investors moved back into the sector after the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, then again after the real estate crisis in 2007 and 2008, looking for hard assets.
In today’s market, he sees investors misallocating capital, overspending on AI, and puzzling cash movements in private credit, where he’s seen some firms buy insurance companies and then loan themselves money from the insurance companies.
“When there’s a liquidity crunch, what ends up happening is everything comes down. People have to sell, but coming out of that, whenever that does happen, I think the natural resource market is going to boom,” Phillips said.
That is why he says he never goes all in. He cited a maxim from his mentor Jim Dines, “rich or poor, it’s good to have cash.” His suggestion is that regardless of what an investor is bullish on, it’s important not to go all in in case the timing on the play is off.
“And what that means is you don’t actually know where we’re at in the baseball game, and if you run out of cash, you have a problem,” he said.
Don't forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.