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Industrial companies are underestimating their exposure to critical mineral shortages and missing a strategic opportunity as a result, according to new analysis from Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Three blind spots in the metrics that companies rely on hide where the risk sits, including what BCG calls "mosquito minerals," so small by traded value that they never reach a risk register.
These are among the findings of Why Critical Mineral Shortages Are a CEO Issue, a BCG report released today. BCG's proprietary model projects demand for key inputs, including rare earths, graphite, copper and lithium, at roughly 120% to 250% of forecast supply through 2040.
"Most industrials track exposure through spend and direct supplier data, and the minerals that can stop a production line are often the ones they spend almost nothing on," said Tycho Möncks, a BCG managing director and partner and a coauthor of the report. "The question for CEOs and boards is not whether their company is exposed. It is. The question is whether they intend to live with that exposure or turn it into an advantage."
Small Markets Can Stall Large Industries
Companies often start their risk assessment with the bill of materials, which points them toward high-volume metals such as copper and lithium. Mosquito minerals fall outside that view. Their traded value is tiny, but the value chains that depend on them are not.
- Rare earths. The rare earths used in a fighter jet are worth less than the paint that coats the plane.
- Gallium. The global market is worth under $350 million a year, with production of only about 900 tons, yet BCG estimates about $3.5 trillion of final products depend on it.
- Arsenic. The upstream market is about $50 million worldwide, yet a single producer supplies roughly 60% of the ultra-high-purity grade used in 5G and 6G infrastructure, data center optics, radar systems, and defense electronics.
- Byproduct supply. Gallium, germanium and arsenic are recovered as byproducts of other mining and industrial processes, so the host metal's market sets their supply. Even a sharp price spike may not bring new production.
Exposure Hides Below Tier One Suppliers
A company that buys almost no critical minerals directly can still be acutely exposed because minerals arrive embedded in motors, magnets, power modules, lasers and sensors. They also sit in the tools and processes used to make those components, from crucibles and catalysts to dies and the capital equipment itself.
Turbine blades, engine blocks and structural aerospace components, for example, are machined with cutting tools made of tungsten carbide bonded with cobalt. A manufacturer that has never bought either metal directly can still see production stop if those tools run short, a dependency that appears on no bill of materials.
Companies also tend to map where critical minerals are mined, but for some minerals the bottleneck is processing, not production. A map of where assets sit and a map of who owns them can look very different, so a change of supplier that looks like diversification may leave a company's exposure unchanged.
Public Capital Is Committed but Largely Unspent
The three blind spots also lead to a strategic miss. The International Energy Agency reports that public finance commitments to critical minerals in advanced economies reached around $65 billion in 2025, more than four times the 2023 level. BCG's review of government-backed vehicles found the flagship instruments barely deployed, with some countries having spent less than 10% of their allocated capital and others nothing.
These vehicles are designed to draw in private capital, and offtake requirements are typically the main eligibility gate. BCG argues that companies without a clear view of their own exposure cannot make a credible commitment, and so cannot qualify. The funds are not free money: they carry conditions such as reporting obligations and localization requirements, and they represent only about one tenth of the capital needed through 2040. But for industrial companies, BCG says, they are a way to build a competitive advantage.
Several of the companies that have reframed their approach and tapped public capital are industrial companies and trading firms, not miners, and BCG found that in each case the CEO and executive team led the process of identifying and correcting their blind spots.
"These blind spots have a cost beyond risk. The money is there, but it comes with offtake requirements, and a company cannot make a credible commitment without knowing its own exposure," said Karthik Valluru, a BCG managing director and senior partner who coauthored the report. "Mapping that exposure properly is where the opportunity starts."
Source: Boston Consulting Group (BCG)