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Operational complexity remains the mining sector’s biggest business risk for 2027, according to a new EY report, as supply chain disruption and increasingly selective capital markets challenge companies’ ability to maintain production.
The EY Top 10 business risks and opportunities in mining and metals report included responses from 400 senior mining and metals executives worldwide, finding these these topics were the sector’s three leading risks.
EY global mining and metals leader Paul Mitchell said companies needed to adapt their strategies to an environment where uncertainty was unlikely to ease.
“Mining has always been complex, but the degree of operational complexity is increasing as mines age and reserves are depleted and the new ones are more difficult to mine and process,” Mitchell said.
“At the same time, geopolitical volatility, changing trade flows and more selective capital are making long-term decisions more complex. The important thing is not to wait for this uncertainty to disappear – it won’t.
“Instead, mining companies must reassess the assumptions underpinning strategies, portfolios and capital decisions and build greater flexibility into how they operate. Those that move early will be the winners.”
The report found regulatory compliance delays to be the leading operational complexity issue, followed by reserve-grade variability, which was identified by 29 per cent of respondents.
Material handling, labour availability, processing capacity, transport and logistics, and plant and equipment reliability were also significant concerns, each cited by 24–26 per cent of respondents.
According to EY, reserve depletion is reducing operational flexibility by limiting available mining areas, feed choices and processing options, making disruptions more difficult to absorb.
Capital ranked as the second-largest risk, with funding becoming more selective as commodity prices diverge and miners take a more disciplined approach to investment.
The report found that 44 per cent of miners were actively pursuing capital from original equipment manufacturers, while 39 per cent were seeking funding from sovereign wealth funds and the same proportion were pursuing government investment.
“Access to diverse funding sources will be critical as companies seek to preserve flexibility when market conditions change,” Mitchell said.
Supply chain was ranked as the third-largest risk, as disruptions affect the flow of mine inputs, processing, transport and market access.
According to EY, miners are responding by improving supply chain visibility through technology, cited by 53 per cent of respondents, and increasing inventory or stockpiles, cited by 52 per cent.
Rising costs ranked fourth, with more expensive inputs and increasingly complex operations adding to structural cost pressures despite strong prices for some commodities.
“Productivity initiatives are often undermined by organisational silos and deliver greater value when managed across the entire value chain rather than through isolated cost-reduction programs,” Mitchell said.
Geopolitics rounded out the top five risks, with its effects extending into capital availability, supply chains and investment decisions.
According to EY, public financing commitments for critical minerals more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025 to about US$65 billion, while 28 per cent of respondents anticipated direct government investment over the following 12 months.
Mitchell said companies would need to adapt to changing policies, trade relationships and investment conditions.
“A volatile geopolitical environment is set to continue, whatever the result of near-term political events such as the US midterms,” Mitchell said.
Cybersecurity entered the top 10 risks, with EY finding that 67 per cent of mining and metals assets sit within what it calls the “vulnerability zone”, meaning they have below-average visibility and cybersecurity controls.
The report’s remaining risks are carbon, sustainability, changing business models and licence to operate.
“Mining companies are already adapting through more selective capital allocation, greater supply-chain resilience and new approaches to managing operational complexity,” Mitchell said.
“The challenge now is to build enough flexibility into business decisions to respond as conditions change.”
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