Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) has approved a $4.5-billion expansion of its Bagdad mine in Arizona that would more than double copper output, bolstering domestic supply as Washington seeks to lessen China’s dominance of metals processing.
The investment would lift the site’s annual copper production to more than 400 million lb., an increase of about 225 million lb., making Bagdad the second-largest copper mine in the United States behind Freeport’s Morenci operation. Molybdenum output would climb by 12 million lb. annually to more than 20 million lb., the company said Wednesday.
The expansion marks “an important step in advancing Freeport’s US copper growth strategy,” CEO Kathleen Quirk said.
Initial production is targeted for mid-2030 following about three-and-a-half years of construction. The project would add concentrating facilities capable of processing 115,000 tonnes of ore daily, alongside a crusher, conveyor and expanded infrastructure. Freeport anticipates a roughly 20% reduction in long-term unit net cash costs.
Cost escalation
“The largely anticipated approval comes amid healthy copper prices, with capital intensity, production expectations and timing consistent with prior communications,” BMO Capital Markets mining analyst Katja Jancic said in a note.
Capital costs are about $1 billion, or 29%, above the $3.5 billion estimate prepared in 2023. In its third-quarter filing last week, Freeport attributed the increase to cost escalation, changes in project scope and revised estimates following additional engineering.
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Project economics are supported at a copper price of about $4 per lb., Freeport says. The expanded operation to benefit from economies of scale, modernized operating practices and lower costs over the long term, the company added. Bagdad’s existing reserves support more than 80 years of operations, providing a substantial base for the investment.
The expansion also strengthens an integrated domestic business. Freeport manages seven US copper operations and operates a smelter and rod mill in Miami, Arizona, plus a refinery and rod mill in El Paso, Texas. Its growth strategy includes recovering additional copper from existing leach stockpiles using additives and heat.
National security
Washington has sought to speed up investment through faster permitting and financial support. President Donald Trump’s March 2025 minerals order directed agencies to expedite priority projects and expanded access to Defence Production Act authorities to support domestic mineral production, explicitly including copper. The measures cover mining, processing, refining and smelting.
The Trump administration has framed copper supply as a national-security concern because of its use in military equipment, electrical infrastructure and manufacturing. China controls more than half of global copper smelting capacity, the White House says.
America’s immediate import dependence largely involves other suppliers. Net imports supplied 57% of US refined-copper consumption in 2025, according to data from the US Geological Survey. Chile accounted for 68% of refined imports during 2021–24, followed by Canada at 16%.
Freeport shares dropped 0.3% to $61.60 Wednesday morning in US trading, valuing the company at about $86 billion. The stock has traded between $38.54 and $80.24 in the past year.