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Glencore (LON: GLEN), one of the world’s largest cobalt producers, reported a 52% drop in output during the first nine months of 2026 as export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) prompted it to leave more of the battery metal unprocessed.
The Swiss-based miner produced 13,700 tonnes of its own-sourced cobalt through September, down from 28,500 tonnes a year earlier, according to its third-quarter production report released Thursday. Output fell 20% quarter-on-quarter to 3,500 tonnes.
Glencore said it is increasingly retaining cobalt contained in mixed ore in solution rather than converting it into saleable hydroxide, cutting near-term processing costs. The company expects to recover the metal’s value as export regulations evolve, but excludes the retained material from reported production.
The strategy illustrates how the DRC’s efforts to control cobalt supply are changing mining operations, with companies delaying processing rather than producing material they cannot immediately export. It also raises the prospect of additional supply entering the market once restrictions ease.
Cobalt restrictions
The DRC, the world’s dominant cobalt-producing country, suspended exports in 2025 after prices slumped to nine-year lows. Authorities subsequently introduced quotas aimed at supporting prices, with restrictions expected to remain in place until at least the end of 2027.
Glencore said its Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) and Mutanda operations hold enough cobalt stocks to meet near-term export allocations. Its African Copper division, which includes the Congolese mines, produced 11,600 tonnes of cobalt through September, down 56% year-on-year.
The volume of cobalt being held in solution remains undisclosed, making it difficult to assess how much additional supply could eventually reach the market.
Column: Congo pivots westward under cover of cobalt controls
Copper operations, meanwhile, delivered stronger results. Glencore’s own-sourced production rose 3% to 598,600 tonnes from 583,500 tonnes a year earlier. Excluding the closure of Mount Isa’s copper mine and the sale of Kidd, output increased 12% on a comparable basis.
Higher mining rates and improved grades at African Copper, together with richer ore at Peru’s Antamina mine, offset weaker production at Antapaccay and Collahuasi.
Glencore aims to produce 1.6 million tonnes of copper annually by 2035, nearly double its current level, as it pursues demand from electrification, power grids and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Production outlook
The company maintained its 2026 copper guidance of 810,000 to 870,000 tonnes, although it expects to finish near the bottom of that range. Steelmaking coal output is also tracking toward the lower end of its 30 million to 32 million-tonne target, while zinc and energy coal are expected near the upper ends of their forecasts.
“We are pleased to report a strong third quarter production performance, where our key assets largely performed in line with expectations and previously communicated guidance,” CEO Gary Nagle said.
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BMO Capital Markets analyst Alexander Pearce said in a note the company’s quarterly production was slightly below expectations overall. Copper and steelmaking coal missed estimates by 3% and 7%, respectively, while zinc and thermal coal exceeded forecasts by 4% and 5%.
Pearce noted Glencore’s full-year outlook remained broadly consistent with BMO’s forecasts, indicating that the quarterly shortfalls could be offset during the final three months of 2026.
Steelmaking coal production declined 13% to 21.5 million tonnes through September because of lower plant throughput and yields at its EVR operations. Energy coal output edged up to 73.9 million tonnes from 73.5 million tonnes a year earlier.
Glencore also advanced the restart of its ferrochrome smelters, bringing Boshoek back online in September and Wonderkop in October, following the earlier restart of Lion. Attributable ferrochrome production climbed 29% from the second quarter.
The company reiterated its forecast for full-year marketing, adjusted earnings before interest and taxes to exceed $5 billion.