Guinea’s Simandou iron ore mine is targeting full annual export capacity of 120 million tonnes by the end of 2027, according to shipping industry forecasts, although analysts remain divided over how quickly the massive operation can overcome rail and port bottlenecks.
The project’s logistics network is operating at an annualized capacity of about 72 million tonnes. Further expansion depends on deliveries of locomotives and wagons, alongside commissioning the second phase of Morébaya port by March 2027.
“Simandou has single-handedly supported seaborne volumes,” Macquarie Group analysts, including Florence Sun, said in a note earlier this month.
The ramp-up is helping offset iron ore supply declines elsewhere as lower prices, elevated freight rates and diesel costs squeeze competing producers. Growing shipments from Guinea could reshape global trade flows and intensify competition among major exporters.
Shipments accelerate
Guinea exported 8.9 million tonnes of iron ore in the third quarter, up 48% from 6 million tonnes in the preceding three months, according to government data.
Baowu Winning Consortium Simandou accounted for 6.55 million tonnes of shipments, while Simfer exported 2.16 million tonnes.
Macquarie estimates that full-year exports could reach about 28 million tonnes if October shipment rates are sustained, weather permitting.
Shipping broker Ifchor Galbraiths has linked the 2027 target to an expanding railway fleet, which could grow to 54 locomotives by the end of 2026 and reach 75 by mid-2027, according to a May report by Seatrade Maritime.
Timeline uncertainty
Not all analysts expect Simandou to meet its ambitious schedule. S&P Global Energy CERA has suggested that reaching full capacity could take more than five years, with exports climbing to about 70 million tonnes by 2028. Fearnley Securities has separately projected full capacity during 2028.
Simandou’s four mining blocks are divided between two consortiums. China- and Singapore-backed Baowu Winning Consortium Simandou controls two blocks, while Simfer, a joint venture between Rio Tinto (ASX, LON: RIO) and Chinalco (HKG: 2600), holds the remaining two.
The pace of expansion could have significant implications for established iron ore producers. A faster increase in Guinean exports would add substantial supply to a market already pressured by weaker prices and rising operating costs, while delays could give competitors more time to adjust.